leearnold (August 31, 2008 at 12:51 am)

This is incorrect. The Japanese public pensions system is invested in stocks and that is part of the reason why they have been in a mess. Social Security is a simple transfer system that, on its own, is either heading toward a little reconsideration in 40 or 50 years, or else no shortfall, ever. It's just not a big deal.

mossretard (August 30, 2008 at 8:55 pm)

What will happen is what happened in Japan with pensions they are about 10-20 years ahead of us in demographics what they did is increase premiums and cut outlays. Probably some socialist trend such as " people who are worth so and so wont qualify to recieve any payment etc..." I am a free man and live in a nation where I dont have to go through any of this leearnold you are a slave.

leearnold (August 30, 2008 at 6:46 pm)

Your comment is misinformation and it will be deleted shortly. (1) It's not anti-Bush especially, it's anti-privatization. (2) Gov't has to provide a safety net, due to the reality of the market economy. This has been understood for a few hundred years. (3) Clinton still made the deficit SMALLER. (4) We're not printing money to pay for SS. (5) We're printing it to save the private financial markets! (6) Current "inflation" is mostly from exploding global demand for raw materials and energy.

mossretard (August 30, 2008 at 6:18 pm)

Well taking an anti bush stance you are proving another point. Government should not be involved in any of this shit, look at the complicated account etc... if a private company did this they would be sued. Clinton used the social security surplus towards the budget to make it look like there was a surplus there wasnt. What you fail to mention is where inflation comes from (printing too much money for pay for this crap) it isnt that we can pay the checks but the money wont be worth anything.

leearnold (June 29, 2008 at 9:40 pm)

Fisher's $13.6 trillion shortfall for SS is over the infinite horizon. That is about one year's GDP over eternity. Hardly a problem! (And it is only a guess, based on a low productivity rate.)

leearnold (June 29, 2008 at 9:12 pm)

No, Social Security does not resolve any other issues in the market economy. As for inflation adjustments in benefits, these comments are restricted to 500 characters. This sort of information can be found rather easily on the internet.

bilgerburg (June 29, 2008 at 4:10 pm)

In regards to your comment on inflation, "With inflation, everything rises: wages, benefits", today we have inflation, quite a bit when looking at headline, but wages aren't following. Does SS have a way or resolving this issue? Also, when they make an inflation adjustment, do they use headline or core? And do they raise it enough to cover the inflation costs incurred during the prior year, or just going forward?

bilgerburg (June 29, 2008 at 4:00 pm)

Hi thanks for your answer...I'm not sure we're on the same page though. In Fisher's speech(Storms on the Horizon, May '08), he says, "The amount of money the Social Security system would need today to cover all unfunded liabilities from now on".."is $13.6 trillion". He goes on to say, "The much bigger concern is Medicare". So, although he makes it clear that the big problem is Medicare, he does not say that SS is not a problem. The speech is available on his website.

leearnold (June 29, 2008 at 1:28 pm)

Stay informed! The Bush Administration WASN'T UNABLE to estimate the cost of the new drug program: they HID the cost, (and hid Big Pharma's lobbyist participation,) to gain easy votes from voters now -- and to crash the safety net later. Pure cynicism! But in the long run, we will fix it, and a democratic government does no worse than the market that it supplements: Each form has (1) a different arena, (2) different information requirements, and (3) different forms of redress.

leearnold (June 29, 2008 at 1:31 am)

No -- Social Security is NOT currently heading to a default in 50 years. But if it DID default at that time, then by law, the benefit is scheduled to drop to 120% of today's benefit in real terms. Normally, Social Security pays back at about the rate of Treasuries, around 3%.